Steam Next Fest Strategy in 2026
What the data says about wishlists, demos, and timing. Real numbers from 200+ games.
If you're planning around the calendar, Steam runs Next Fest three times in 2026: February 23 to March 2 (already done), June 15 to 22, and October 19 to 26. The June and October editions run from 10:00 AM PDT on the start day to 10:00 AM PDT on the end day, landing just before the Summer and Winter sales (February ran on Pacific time too, before daylight saving). A game can only join one Next Fest, ever, so pick the edition that fits your release window. Your demo has to be publicly playable by the time the fest opens, and you can't release until after it closes.
Here's the thing about Next Fest: everyone treats it like a lottery. Throw your demo in, cross your fingers, hope the algorithm smiles on you. That's not how it works.
I've been reading postmortems obsessively. Hundreds of them from 2025 alone. The pattern is so consistent it's almost boring: the games that "win" Next Fest aren't discovering success during the festival. They're amplifying momentum they already built.
Let me show you what I mean.
The Formula Nobody Wants to Hear
Wishlists Before × 2 = Wishlists Gained
This ratio shows up in postmortem after postmortem.
Eilean Mor went into October 2025 with 2,117 wishlists. Gained 2,082 during the festival. Almost exactly 2×.
[IMAGE: Eilean Mor trailer screenshot or embed - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jFv7SjsQEws]
Dice of Kalma went in with 335 wishlists. Gained 659. Just under 2×. Their developer wrote: "Our wishlists nearly tripled, which is awesome, but we have still lot of work to do."
That's the uncomfortable truth. Next Fest doubles what you already have. If you have nothing, you get nothing doubled.
The 2,000 Wishlist Cliff
Data from 208 games in February 2025 shows a sharp inflection point at 2,000 wishlists.
| Starting Wishlists | What Happens |
|---|---|
| Under 1,000 | You're invisible after day 2. Zero games jumped tiers. |
| 1,000–2,000 | Modest gains. You stay in your lane. |
| 2,000+ | The algorithm starts helping you. Real momentum possible. |
| 10,000+ | Gold tier. Strong gains likely. |
| 100,000+ | Diamond tier. You're competing for the top charts. |
Here's what a developer from that survey said: "You really start to see how the wishlists a game earns takes off for games that have 2000+ wishlists before Steam Next Fest."
It's not an algorithm thing exactly. It's a validation thing. 2,000 wishlists means you've figured out something about marketing. You know how to reach people. That skill compounds during the festival.
The First 48 Hours Are Everything
Valve gives everyone a shot on days 1 and 2. After that, the algorithm decides who deserves more visibility based on performance.
Bronze tier games? Their impressions fall off a cliff on day 3. Diamond tier games? Their impressions triple.
Day 1-2: Push everything. Stream. Post. Coordinate with creators. Day 3+: The algorithm has already decided. You're along for the ride.
What Actually Won in 2025
Do No Harm (February 2025)
[IMAGE: Do No Harm trailer screenshot or embed - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBlOHAL1LkY]
The numbers: 45,655 wishlists gained during Next Fest. Started with 52,102.
What they did:
- Trailer dropped on GameTrailers January 29 (weeks before Next Fest)
- PR outreach timed with trailer
- Demo went live February 4
- Paid ads to amplify organic momentum
This is the playbook. They didn't rely on Next Fest to discover them. They used Next Fest to multiply attention they'd already earned.
Cairn (October 2025)
[IMAGE: Cairn trailer screenshot or embed - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6KWhvvk3bM]
Hit #5 on Popular Upcoming on day 1. Top Demos and Trending Upcoming by day 2.
What they did:
- Demo launched December 2024 (10 months before their Next Fest)
- 32,000 followers before the festival
- Accepted into 18 festivals before Next Fest
- The Game Bakers (Furi, Haven) - established studio with track record
They didn't need Next Fest. But they used it anyway because it's free amplification when you've already done the work.
YAPYAP (October 2025)
[IMAGE: YAPYAP gameplay screenshot or embed - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7d8Fd9XXAtQ]
The "friend slop" phenomenon. Co-op horror where you play as wizards vandalizing a tower. Went viral on social media, then dominated Next Fest.
Their trailer dropped August 25, 2025 - one month before Next Fest. It earned 434K views. That was the inflection point. Everything after was just riding the wave.
What February 2026 Confirmed
The February 2026 edition didn't change the playbook, it hardened it. The fest crossed 3,500 games, up 51% year over year, and the median title walked away with about 200 wishlists and 11 new followers. More games, thinner slices. The top 5% gained roughly 7,000 wishlists, down from about 10,000 a year earlier, so even the winners are splitting a more crowded pie. Co-op kept dominating, and the "shadow-drop your demo right before the fest" idea got debunked again: of the ten top earners analyzed, only one launched its demo just days before. The rest had demos out for a month or longer. Build the audience first, every edition keeps saying the same thing.
The Genres That Keep Winning
From the February 2025 diamond tier:
- Horror (×2) - Steam loves horror. Always has.
- Strategy/Management (×4) - "Crafty-buildy-simulationy" is the vibe
- Co-op "friend slop" - Lethal Company opened the floodgates
- Point-and-click (×2) - but both were sequels with existing audiences
The point-and-click thing is interesting. Beholder: Conductor was the 4th game in its series. Duck Detective was a sequel. They had built-in audiences. First-time point-and-click devs don't see those results.
What The Small Games Say
Not everyone is chasing diamond tier. Here's what developers at the smaller end reported from October 2025:
"62% conversion rate from visits to wishlists. Store page itself seems to work. But impressions were high and people didn't click. Capsule art needs an update."
"57% of store visitors played our demo. That sounds high? But only 15% who played also wishlisted. Something didn't meet expectations."
"Got permanently banned from r/cozygames for asking if they found our game cozy. Always try to follow the rules but this was pretty surprising."
The grind is real. These developers are testing capsule art, tweaking tags, getting banned from subreddits. It's not glamorous.
One pattern that's gotten stronger: co-op "friend slop" games rack up huge demo play counts but convert fewer of those players into wishlists, because the audience showing up is casual and there to mess around with friends, not to track a release. High plays don't automatically mean high wishlists.
The Honest Playbook
Months before Next Fest:
- Launch your demo early. Like, way early. The winners had demos out for 6-12 months.
- Enter smaller genre festivals first. Use them as polish runs.
- Build to 2,000+ wishlists. That's your real threshold.
During Next Fest:
- Days 1-2 are make or break. Push everything.
- Stream if you can. It shows as "live" on your page.
- Coordinate with streamers. Pay them if you have to.
- Put your demo on a separate Steam page so it can collect reviews.
After Next Fest:
- Don't launch immediately. A few weeks later actually performs better.
- Use the momentum for your actual launch marketing.
When To Skip It
Real talk: Next Fest isn't for everyone.
Skip it if:
- You have under 1,000 wishlists (you'll be invisible by day 3)
- Your demo isn't polished (you get one shot at first impressions)
- It's your first festival ever (do smaller ones first)
- You're launching immediately after (wait a few weeks)
There are dozens of smaller festivals every month. More focused audiences. Less competition. Check howtomarketagame.com/festivals for the list.
Next Fest is the default because Valve prompts everyone to join. But the best marketing isn't the stuff everyone gets prompted to do.
About the Author
Oleg Sidorkin builds tools for indie game developers. He's been studying game marketing data and developer postmortems to understand what actually works versus what gets hyped.
Notes for Game Developer editors:
IMAGE PLACEMENTS:
- After "Almost exactly 2×" paragraph - Eilean Mor video embed or screenshot
- After "Do No Harm (February 2025)" header - Do No Harm video embed or screenshot
- After "Cairn (October 2025)" header - Cairn video embed or screenshot
- After "YAPYAP (October 2025)" header - YAPYAP video embed or screenshot
VIDEO URLS:
- Eilean Mor: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jFv7SjsQEws
- Do No Harm: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBlOHAL1LkY
- Cairn: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6KWhvvk3bM
- YAPYAP: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7d8Fd9XXAtQ
STEAM LINKS (for reference/linking):