Steam Next Fest Strategy in 2026

What the data says about wishlists, demos, and timing. Real numbers from 200+ games.

Submitted toGame Developer

AuthorOleg Sidorkin

Word Count~1,400 words

Images4 screenshots

📋 Summary

Key Findings

The 2× rule: Games typically double their pre-festival wishlist count during Next Fest
The 2,000 threshold: Games with fewer than 2,000 wishlists become invisible after day 2
The 48-hour window: Days 1-2 determine algorithmic placement for the rest of the festival
Winning genres: Horror, strategy/management, and co-op "friend slop" dominated 2025

Analysis based on 200+ developer postmortems from 2025. Includes case studies of Do No Harm (45K wishlists gained), Cairn (#5 demo day 1), YAPYAP (viral trailer strategy), and practical advice for timing, preparation, and when to skip Next Fest entirely.

👤 Author

Oleg Sidorkin

Builds tools for indie game developers. Studies game marketing data and developer postmortems to understand what actually works versus what gets hyped.

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